As originally published via CoinLive
I am the Co-Founder at CoinLive. Prior to founding Coinlive.io, my area of expertise was inter-market analysis. I came across Datadash 50k BTC prediction this week, and I must take my hats off to what I believe is an excellent interpretation of the inter-connectivity of various markets.
At your own convenience, you can find a sample of Intermarket analysis I've written in the past before immersing myself into cryptos full-time. Gold inter-market: 'Out of sync' with VIX, takes lead from USD/JPY USD/JPY inter-market: Watch divergence US-Japan yield spread EUUSD intermarket: US yields collapse amid supply environment Inter-market analysis: Risk back in vogue, but for how long? USD/JPY intermarket: Bulls need higher adj in 10-y US-JP spread
The purpose of this article is to dive deeper into the factors Datadash presents in his video and how they can help us draw certain conclusions about the potential flows of capital into crypto markets and the need that will exist for a BTC ETF.
Before I do so, as a brief explainer, let's touch on what exactly Intermarket analysis refers to:
Intermarket analysis is the global interconnectivity between equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, and any other asset class; Global markets are an ever-evolving discounting and constant valuation mechanism and by studying their interconnectivity, we are much better positioned to explain and elaborate on why certain moves occur, future directions and gain insights on potential misalignments that the market may not have picked up on yet or might be ignoring/manipulating.
While such interconnectivity has proven to be quite limiting when it comes to the value one can extract from analyzing traditional financial assets and the crypto market, Datadash has eloquently been able to build a hypothesis, which as an Intermarket analyst, I consider very valid, and that matches up my own views. Nicolas Merten constructs a scenario which leads him to believe that a Bitcoin ETF is coming. Let's explore this hypothesis.
I will attempt to summarize and provide further clarity on why the current events in traditional asset classes, as described by Datadash, will inevitably result in a Bitcoin ETF. Make no mistake, Datadash's call for Bitcoin at 50k by the end of 2018 will be well justified once a BTC ETF is approved. While the timing is the most challenging part t get right, the end result won't vary.
If one wishes to learn more about my personal views on why a BTC ETF is such a big deal, I encourage you to read my article
from late March this year. Don't Be Misled by Low Liquidity/Volume - Fundamentals Never Stronger
The first point Nicholas Merten makes is that despite depressed volume levels, the fundamentals are very sound. That, I must say, is a point I couldn't agree more. In fact, I recently wrote an article titled The Paradox: Bitcoin Keeps Selling as Intrinsic Value Set to Explode
where I state "the latest developments in Bitcoin's technology makes it paradoxically an ever increasingly interesting investment proposition the cheaper it gets."
However, no article better defines where we stand in terms of fundamentals than the one I wrote back on May 15th titled Find Out Why Institutions Will Flood the Bitcoin Market
, where I look at the ever-growing list of evidence that shows why a new type of investors, the institutional ones, looks set to enter the market in mass.
Nicholas believes that based on the supply of Bitcoin, the market capitalization can reach about $800b. He makes a case that with the fundamentals in bitcoin much stronger, it wouldn't be that hard to envision the market cap more than double from its most recent all-time high of more than $300b. Interest Rates Set to Rise Further
First of all, one of the most immediate implications of higher rates is the increased difficulty to bear the costs by borrowers, which leads Nicholas to believe that banks the likes of Deutsche Bank will face a tough environment going forward. The CEO of the giant German lender has actually warned that second-quarter results would reflect a “revenue environment [that] remains challenging."
Nicholas refers to the historical chart
of Eurodollar LIBOR rates as illustrated below to strengthen the case that interest rates are set to follow an upward trajectory in the years to come as Central Banks continue to normalize monetary policies after a decade since the global financial crisis. I'd say, that is a correct assumption, although one must take into account the Italian crisis to be aware that a delay in higher European rates is a real possibility now. !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/947/content_2018-05-30_1100.png)
Let's look at the following combinations: Fed Fund Rate Contract (green
), German 2-year bond yields (black
) and Italy's 10-year bond yield (blue
) to help us clarify what's the outlook for interest rates both in Europe and the United States in the foreseeable future. The chart suggests that while the Federal Reserve remains on track to keep increasing interest rates at a gradual pace, there has been a sudden change in the outlook for European rates in the short-end of the curve.
While the European Central Bank is no longer endorsing proactive policies as part of its long-standing QE narrative, President Mario Draghi is still not ready to communicate an exit strategy to its unconventional stimulus program due to protectionism threats in the euro-area, with Italy the latest nightmare episode.
Until such major step is taken in the form of a formal QE conclusion, interest rates in the European Union will remain depressed; the latest drastic spike in Italy's benchmark bond yield to default levels is pre-emptive of lower rates for longer, an environment that on one hand may benefit the likes of Deutsche Bank on lower borrowing costs, but on the other hand, sets in motion a bigger headache as risk aversion is set to dominate financial markets, which leads to worse financial consequences such as loss of confidence and hence in equity valuations. !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/948/content_2018-05-30_1113.png) Deutsche Bank - End of the Road?
Nicholas argues that as part of the re-restructuring process in Deutsche Bank, they will be facing a much more challenging environment as lending becomes more difficult on higher interest rates. At CoinLive, we still believe this to be a logical scenario to expect, even if a delay happens as the ECB tries to deal with the Italian political crisis which once again raises the question of whether or not Italy should be part of the EU. Reference to an article by Zerohedge
is given, where it states: "One day after the WSJ reported that the biggest German bank is set to "decimate" its workforce, firing 10,000 workers or one in ten, this morning Deutsche Bank confirmed plans to cut thousands of jobs as part of new CEO Christian Sewing's restructuring and cost-cutting effort. The German bank said its headcount would fall “well below” 90,000, from just over 97,000. But the biggest gut punch to employee morale is that the bank would reduce headcount in its equities sales and trading business by about 25%."
There is an undeniably ongoing phenomenon of a migration in job positions from traditional financial markets into blockchain, which as we have reported in the past, it appears to be a logical and rational step to be taken, especially in light of the new revenue streams the blockchain sector has to offer. Proof of that is the fact that Binance, a crypto exchange with around 200 employees and less than 1 year of operations has overcome Deutsche Bank, in total profits. What this communicates is that the opportunities to grow an institution’s revenue stream are formidable once they decide to integrate cryptocurrencies into their business models.
One can find an illustration of Deutsche Bank's free-fall in prices below:
Nicholas takes notes of a chart in which one can clearly notice a worrying trend for Italian debt. "Just about every other major investor type has become a net seller (to the ECB) or a non-buyer of BTPs over the last couple of years. Said differently, for well over a year, the only marginal buyer of Italian bonds has been the ECB!",
the team of Economists at Citi explained. One can find the article via ZeroHedge here
. !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/953/content_2018-05-30_1451.png) Equities & Housing to Suffer the Consequences
Nicholas notes that trillions of dollars need to exit these artificially-inflated equity markets. He even mentions a legendary investor such as George Soros, who has recently warned
that the world could be on the brink of another devastating financial crisis, on lingering debt concerns in Europe and a strengthening US dollar, as a destabilizing factor for both the US's emerging- and developed-market rivals.
Ray Dalio, another legend in the investing world and Founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, "has ramped up its short positions in European equities in recent weeks, bringing their total value to an estimated $22 billion", MarketWatch
Nicholas extracts a chart
by John Del Vecchio at lmtr.com where it illustrates the ratio between stocks and commodities at the lowest in over 50 years.
As the author states: "I like to look for extremes in the markets. Extremes often pinpoint areas where returns can be higher and risk lower than in other time periods. Take the relationship between commodities and stocks. The chart below shows that commodities haven not been cheaper than stocks in a generation. We often hear this time it is different” to justify what’s going on in the world. But, one thing that never changes is human nature. People push markets to extremes. Then they revert. " !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/954/content_2018-05-30_1459.png) Bitcoin ETF the Holy Grail for a Cyclical Multi-Year Bull Run
It is precisely from this last chart above that leads Nicholas to believe we are on the verge of a resurgence in commodity prices. Not only that but amid the need of all this capital to exit stocks and to a certain extent risky bonds (Italian), a new commodity-based digital currency ETF based on Bitcoin will emerge in 2018.
The author of Datadash highlights the consideration to launching a Bitcoin ETF by the SEC. At CoinLive, our reporting of the subject can be found below: "Back in April, it was reported that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has put back on the table two Bitcoin ETF proposals, according to public documents. The agency is under formal proceedings to approve a rule change that would allow NYSE Arca to list two exchange-traded funds (ETFs) proposed by fund provider ProShares. The introduction of an ETF would make Bitcoin available to a much wider share of market participants, with the ability to directly buy the asset at the click of a button, essentially simplifying the current complexity that involves having to deal with all the cumbersome steps currently in place."
Nicholas refers to the support the Bitcoin ETF has been receiving by the Cboe president Chris Concannon, which is a major positive development. CoinLive reported
on the story back in late March, noting that "a Bitcoin ETF will without a doubt open the floodgates to an enormous tsunami of fresh capital entering the space, which based on the latest hints by Concannon, the willingness to keep pushing for it remains unabated as the evolution of digital assets keeps its course."
It has been for quite some time CoinLive's conviction, now supported by no other than Nicholas Merten from Datadash, that over the next 6 months, markets will start factoring in the event of the year, that is, the approval of a Bitcoin ETF that will serve as a alternative vehicle to accommodate the massive flows of capital leaving some of the traditional asset classes. As Nicholas suggests, the SEC will have little choice but to provide alternative investments. Bitcoin as a Hedge to Lower Portfolios' Volatility
Last but not least, crypto assets such as Bitcoin and the likes have an almost non-existent correlation to other traditional assets such as stocks, bonds, and commodities, which makes for a very attractive and broadly-applicable diversification strategy for the professional money as it reduces one’s portfolio volatility. The moment a Bitcoin ETF is confirmed, expect the non-correlation element of Bitcoin as a major driving force to attract further capital. Anyone Can Be Wrong Datadash, But You Won't be Wrong Alone
Having analyzed the hypothesis by Nicholas Merten, at CoinLive we believe that the conclusion reached, that is, the creation of a Bitcoin ETF that will provide shelter to a tsunami of capital motivated by the diversification and store of value appeal of Bitcoin, is the next logical step. As per the timing of it, we also anticipate, as Nicholas notes, that it will most likely be subject to the price action in traditional assets. Should equities and credit markets hold steady, it may result in a potential delay, whereas disruption in the capital market may see the need for a BTC ETF accelerate. Either scenario, we will conclude with a quote we wrote back in March. "It appears as though an ETF on Bitcoin is moving from a state of "If" to "When."
Datadash is certainly not alone on his 50k call. BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes appears to think along the same line. On behalf of the CoinLive Team, we want to thank Nicholas Merten at Datadash for such enlightening insights.
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Friday, 8 June 2018
→ New Physically-Backed Bitcoin ETF Proposal Filed with SEC | NewsBTC
A Bitcoin ETF has long been talked about but never got past the U.S. SEC. However, two firms might have come up with a solution.
→ 'Just Beware' Is All Jamie Dimon Will Say About Bitcoin - CoinDesk
Jamie Dimon once called bitcoin a fraud – now he's saying "just beware."
→ Japan Blasts Crypto Exchange Execs in First-Ever License Rejection - CoinDesk
Japan's financial regulator has formally issued its first denial to a business registration application filed by cryptocurrency exchange FSHO. → Mining Giant Bitmain’s CEO Wu ‘Open’ to Hong Kong IPO, Report Says
The CEO of Bitcoin mining tech giant Bitmain has appeared to confirm he would be interested in conducting an IPO for the company in future. Daily Performances General Comment:
Calm before the storm? The broad market continues to drift sideways in thin volumes, and with trading ranges narrowing by the day. Volatility has all but disappeared, but most likely only for the short term. Technicals indicate that a breakout is likely within the next several weeks, probably triggered by external factors ensued by a big gap move as participants try to capture the movement in a vacuum. https://preview.redd.it/iw1qmpnzqx211.png?width=909&format=png&auto=webp&s=f8b2d5e9bd1d258e899c1e48e6dde1c6d63e5836 Technical Analysis - BTC
Bitcoin price moved higher and broke a major resistance near $7,650 against the US Dollar. The pair may correct a few points in the short term, but dips remain supported around $7,600. BTC/USD remains buy on dips near the $7,600 and $7,500 support levels. https://preview.redd.it/m730hni2rx211.png?width=1344&format=png&auto=webp&s=637c208b5d6d11c39e72cde01d63171a53dd2a7d
Thursday, 7 June 2018
→ Bitcoin in Brief Wednesday: German Banks Trade Cryptos, US Universities Invest in Crypto Hedge Funds
At least six German financial institutions are involved in cryptocurrency trading.
→ Coinbase Acquires Financial Services Firm to Become SEC-Regulated Broker Dealer
The acquisition of securities dealer Keystone Capital Corp will allow Coinbase to become a fully regulated broker dealer by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
→ Susquehanna Is Opening Crypto Trading, Starting with BTC Futures
Susquehanna International Group is opening cryptocurrency trading to its clients, initially in the form of Bitcoin (BTC) futures, the New York Times reported June 5.→ Why Does Blockchain Makes More Sense After GDPR
While there could be some initial hiccups about complete compliance with GDPR, technology like blockchain offers a bright spot on the horizon. Daily Performances General Comment:
The market continues to trade sideways in thin volumes, with BTC trading right around the 20DMA level. Technicals show a narrowing uppelower band (BTC USD7'000/9'000) that indicates a breakout in the near future, and when it does the the low volume/low volatility environment could change drastically at least for a short while. https://preview.redd.it/iu8spgnwgk211.png?width=907&format=png&auto=webp&s=8706108c4dd87265a517ec9039cb5eef329d2bf7 Technical Analysis - BTC
BTCUSD is locked in the 7'700-7'000 range, if it manages to break above 7'700 we would expect to test 8600, if it breaks 7'000 we expect an important fall to below 6'000 https://preview.redd.it/btss3i91hk211.png?width=1344&format=png&auto=webp&s=859ffb619003919d6cf45194870dd442f3ca7154
Wednesday, 6 June 2018
→ Money20/20: Central Bank Execs Conclude Crypto Is No Threat to Fiat, Yet
Why fiat is not particularly threatened by crypto..
→ Binance Official: ‘If the ICO Bubble Bursts, It’s a Good Thing for the Industry’
The ICO bubble needs to burst in order for truly valuable projects to come about.
→ Magic Number? Chart Data Hints at June 6 Bitcoin Boost
A major reprieve just may be in the offing for the battered bitcoin bulls in the next 36 hours – if, that is, historical patterns repeat themselves. Daily Performances General Comment:
We continue to see sideways movement with no strong directional conviction. However, a prolonged period of very low volumes and dangerously low volatility juxtaposed with the narrowing of critical technical levels - BTC USD7'000 psychological support that must not be broken, and USD8'000 level broken above that may pull in buyers to test the upside band of USD9'000 - indicates a potential violent break out of recent range over the next several weeks. The BTC market has been flirting with both sides. Keeping a very close check on potential news triggers (Crypto and non-Crypto) would be highly advisable. https://preview.redd.it/chgs44f9bc211.png?width=912&format=png&auto=webp&s=65ad2714afb3041d07cf357d5cf7f2c2178a0c18 Technical Analysis - BTC
BTCUSD is locked in the 7800-7000 range, if it manages to break above 7800 we would expect to test 8600, if it breaks 7000 we expect an important fall to below 6000.**05.05.2018 https://preview.redd.it/090l1uyfbc211.png?width=1344&format=png&auto=webp&s=dd73a94c497be4c25bd8ec37a425398c313b0a4f
Tuesday, 5 June 2018
→ LinkedIn Co-Founder Is Raising $20 Million for Token Project - CoinDesk
One of the co-founders of LinkedIn is raising as much as $20 million in a SAFT sale.
→ OKEx Latest Industry Giant to Launch Cryptocurrency Index Fund
OKEx has become the latest industry giant to launch a cryptocurrency index fund.
→ Crypto Exchange Coinbase Plans Expansion With Japanese Office
Coinbase Inc., one of the largest U.S. digital-currency exchanges, is expanding into one of the world’s hottest crypto markets. Daily Performances General Comment:
The broad crypto market drifted sideways to slightly softer overnight. Market cap is at USD330 billion. We continue to see more of the same - low volumes, extremely low volatility and high correlation across currencies. Yesterday we failed to reach short term upside targets for confirmation of longer term consolidation (BTC USD 8000, ETH 650). On the news front, lots of news coming out from the crypto exchange business in Japan with regards to both new entrants (HitBTC, Coinbase) The move reflects the overall trend to be compliant with local regulation, which is healthy for the long term. https://preview.redd.it/nd2kkmmbac211.png?width=920&format=png&auto=webp&s=e5e95fdb01d33841116e3b59a66d3df62ad9cf4d Technical Analysis - BTC
BTCUSD is locked in the 7800-7000 range, if it manages to break above 7800 we would expect to test 8600, if it breaks 7000 we expect an important fall to below 6000. https://preview.redd.it/lgpzm2ckac211.png?width=1344&format=png&auto=webp&s=83b4eb9d9d78a43ef68ea59b956322c4be7001d7
Monday, 4 June 2018
→ Initial Coin Offerings Have Already Topped 2017's Record Pace
Sales of digital tokens by technology companies this year have already surpassed the record amount raised in all of 2017.
→ The EOS Blockchain Launch: What Should Happen (And What Could Go Wrong
The world's fifth most valuable cryptocurrency is set to formally release its software this weekend.
→ Cryptocurrency Exchange Hitbtc Suspends Services in Japan
Hitbtc has suspended its services for Japanese residents to avoid any trouble with the country’s financial regulator since it is not authorized to operate in Japan. → Binance Reveals Plan for $1 Billion Blockchain Startup Fund
Binance has announced it is launching a $1 billion "Social Impact Fund" to foster the growth of blockchain and cryptocurrency startups. Daily Performances General Comment:
Over the weekend the broad market recovered steadily but in quiet trading. What appears to have been an ETH led sell off last week has reversed nicely (as can clearly be seen in ETH/BTC back to 0.08), with BTC holding the critical USD7000 level and now testing the “all clear” point of USD 8'000. The equivalent ETH level to the upside is around USD 650, both of which broken above indicate a possible test of higher ranges. XRP appears to have fully recovered this level.Developments in “off-chain” markets and mounting concerns of European sovereign debt continue to be the next possible catalyst for crypto markets. https://preview.redd.it/7s6p0le0yx111.png?width=873&format=png&auto=webp&s=5822c471a38c39452c016c79bfa58bed017e17e5
Many thanks to Mariem
@SwissBorg for providing us with THE latest news. Disclaimer: Insider aims to provide our community with updates and information regarding financial markets and the blockchain world.This is our way of communicating with our community. It is meant to be used for informational purposes not to be mistaken for financial advice.Our opinion, when shared, is just that, it may not apply directly to your individual situation. Any information gleaned here is to be used at the readers' own risk, SwissBorg does not accept any responsibility for individual decisions made based on reading our daily blog. Any information we provide on our daily blog is accurate and true to the best of our knowledge, there may be omissions, errors or mistakes. Copyright © 2018 SwissBorg, All rights reserved
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